Sunday, February 26, 2012

Obama Odds On

President Obama has a 60.5 percent chance of being reelected, according to people willing to bet on it at the web site Mitt Romney is at 30.5 percent. He has a 79.7 percent chance of wining the Republican nomination.

Susana Martinez is fifth in line to be the Republican vice presidential nominee, with a 6.5 percent chance. The odds on favorite is Floridian Marco Rubio, at 24 percent, but America's first Latina governor is the top woman and her chances are well above those of many more well known figures like Newt Gingrich (1.4) Jeb Bush (1.4) Sarah Palin (.2) and Michelle Bachmann (.2).

Intrade works by people buying and selling yes or no shares, shares of whether or not certain events will happen. Many things are up for bid besides the presidential election: primaries, the stock market closing above 12,000 for the year, who will win the academy award for best actor and actress, etc. After the event, a "correct" share is worth $10, an "incorrect" share worth $0.00. Shares for Obama winning are now selling at $6.09, so if you bought now you'd either lose $6.09 per share or win $3.91.  

I'm looking through the web site now to see if I can bet on whether Jim Baca misses any tee times this year because he fell asleep in the hot tub. Not likely, but you never know. What a payday that would be.


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