Sunday, August 5, 2012

It's Over - Obama Will Win

Projected electoral votes - New York Times

If you're a Democrat and frightened about a President Romney, read this and then head down to the Dairy Queen for a nice strawberry sundae, or even a banana split.

New York Times
Forget about those polls that come out every week that lump the whole country together and say the race is within two percentage points. Those are useless, but the media enjoy them because they make it seem like there's a reason to go to work every morning. They keep people interested, which helps advertising revenue.

But a careful analysis of state-by-state polls over the past several months by Michael Tomasky, who writes for Newsweek and The Daily Beast, indicates things have trended toward Barak Obama, and that he will have a fairly easy time winning re-election.

Obama could well win 330 electoral votes, a landslide. Only 270 are needed, and in looking at which states each candidate can expect to win, and at the ones still up for grabs, it's increasing difficult for Mitt Romney to reach 270.

The Obama administration has managed to hold off implementation in some key states of the odious voter i.d. laws, the Republicans' underhanded scheme to hold down the Democratic vote. Obama will win New York and California, with 55 and 29 votes. A key swing state, Pennyslvania, with 20 votes, is looking better and better for him. As in some other key states, demographic trends since the 2008 election have helped Obama. Florida's big 29 votes are still up for grabs, but they aren't enough to give Romney the win.

Tomasky is no flake. This is not wild speculation. I've taken an occasional look at some of the web sites that follow the electoral map, and from that perspective, the important one, it's not hard to conclude that it looks favorable for Obama. Tomasky bases much of his article on poll analysis done by Nate Silver of the New York Times, at whose blog there are some interesting charts and maps including one where you can hover your mouse over a state to make recent poll trends pop up, but other sites like Silver's follow more or less the same predictive model -- Obama will win, because he has a comfortable lead in electoral votes. Larry Sabato has Obama leading 247 electoral votes to Romney's 213. CNN has it 247 to 206 for Obama. Political Wire has Obama winning 332 to 206.

Recall that in 2000, George W Bush won the election despite coming in second to Al Gore in the vote total. It's the electoral map that counts.

So there will be no government of and by the super rich, for the super rich. At least not so much as we have had under Obama. Hopefully a second term Obama will have learned some lessons. The big Wall Street money changers have deserted him and are supporting Romney, despite everything Obama has done in his first term to get them to like him. Depending on how the congressional elections turn out, we may actually see Obama try to do something for the rest of us in his second term.

Never forget that in his first term, he bailed out the big banks but did nothing, virtually nothing save for a pathetically few token gestures, to bail out working class Americans who were being thrown out of their homes by the millions, who couldn't find work, who saw their future disappearing into a black hole, all while the profits of the rich soared. Recall that there have been no prosecutions -- zero -- of the Wall Street tycoons and big bank thieves who time after time stole from us and from our government and sent our economy down the road to hell.

There was speculation that Republican working class Whites, the tea baggers and the rest of the unreconstructed racists whose fears the Republicans continually stoke and whose votes they rely on, hate Obama so much  that there would be a massive turnout against him, and it was mightily was hoped so by the conservative media of this country, which includes not just Fox News, who have all worked tirelessly toward that end, but the polls say that's not going to happen.

My feeling is that people have been shaken so much by the severity of the country's economic condition, by how long the unemployment rate has remained as high as it has, by the realization that their standard of living is in decline, by an acute awareness that the deck is stacked ever more against them, that the rich have won and aren't looking back at the hellhole they've left us in, that they would rather go with the flawed entity they know than with one they don't and trust even less.

Also, I expected that the unlimited amounts of money the rich can now spend on attack ads would hurt Obama. The money and the attack ads have been coming and will continue to come, but Obama has shown that he can give as good as he gets. He can play dirty, just like the Republicans, and although he has forsaken the working class in the most deplorable ways, when it's the difference between winning and losing he's not afraid to play the class card, the most powerful one of all but which corporatist Democrats like himself don't like to play.

The worst fear for Obama and for millions of his supporters was that he would have failed, failed in that he would not be validated by a second term. He won't fail in those terms. He might even realize that, when he wins, it was us, we the people, who saved his sorry ass, and who forgave him when he didn't save ours.


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