Thursday, October 25, 2012

4 More

"Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in 11 polls, to Mr. Romney's 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney."

This was from Nate Silver, New York Times, in today's article titled "Romney's Momentum Seems to Have Stopped."

As you know, without Ohio Romney never had a chance, and he never really had a chance to win Ohio. He won't even win some of the other swing states he would have needed. There is still the potential for the election in a given state to be stolen, if it is close, but that's a big if. In early voting in Ohio Obama is leading Romney by a substantial margin.

Silver talks about the rise and fall of Romney's poll numbers since the first presidential debate, which Romney is said to have "won." He doesn't analyze why this all has happened but my take on it is that Romney's "momentum" was owing to how his performance in that debate affected certain Republicans who had not before enthusiastically supported Romney. Romney was self confident and assertive while President Obama was less so. It has been commented that Romney put on an "Alpha male" performance.

In animals that live in pack like wolves the alpha male is the strongest or most aggressive. He intimidates other males or beats them in fights and the other males "fall in line."

In human however there is more at play, with our complex human psyches. Part of the reason some males submit to other males has an element of sexual submission to it. Republican males love a strong authoritative leader. Even among Republican leaders they take turns submitting to each other.

You don't have to think very long about Republicans, and Republican Christianity, and some of the obsessions that drive those groups, for this to make sense.

Romney will now limp, let us say, to the finish line.



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