Thursday, April 30, 2015

Trouble A Comin'

There was this little blurb from Yahoo Business last night:

U.S. stocks dropped Wednesday following news that the economy skidded to a near halt in the first three months of the year, battered by harsh weather, plunging exports and sharp cutbacks in oil and gas drilling. Stocks stayed lower after the Federal Reserve downgraded its assessment of the economy and kept its key interest rate unchanged. The overall economy grew at a barely discernible annual rate of 0.2 percent in the January-March quarter, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. That is the poorest showing in a year and down from 2.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter.

The IMF, too, a few days ago predicted growth will be negligible in the next year.

Since presidential elections are usually decided by the economy it'll be very bad news for Hillary Clinton and Democrats in general if the economy is in recession during the campaign.

It's good that Bernie Sanders, who they are calling a Democratic Socialist now, will be in the race because it'll mean the media has to report some of what he says. His class based rants will help raise class consciousness. His message of income redistribution through government sounds pretty radical now but it's only what a mainstream Liberal Democrat would have said 30 years ago.

His presence will also mean Hillary has to sound even more populist than she's been sounding in the first days of her campaign. Her and her people have been counting delegates for months and know the liberal wing of the party has a lot to say about who the nominee is.

Deep inside of Hillary there's still that crusading, caring, traditional Liberal. Then she opens her eyes, puts her feet on the floor and checks her cell phone.

Trouble is coming.


  1. Predicting crashes of the stock market is about as successful as predicting presidential election results. Ask Mitt Romney. That said, it is particularly worrisome to me to see the obstruction tactics used by Republicans against President Obama. They have used them at every level and at every opportunity.

    That President Obama accomplished anything is one of those miracles' that Christians are always ranting about. They obstructed him to the point that the sorry condition of the country can be laid at the Republicans feet. They obstructed to the point that their efforts seem to me like those of traitors to the country.

    I am not sure that they succeeded in hoodwinking the majority of the populace. We will see. This next presidential election will be the test of that. It they succeed and it is seen that the taking of the presidency is because of their obstruction efforts, the template for the next few years will be set as the Democrats will then use the same tactics against them.

    Like the conservatives like to say, words and actions have consequences.

    Along those lines, conservatives do seem to swallow right wing propaganda more so than liberals. Look at the ridiculous actions this past week by the governor of Texas deploying the National Guard to protect Texans from American troops running exercises there.

    As for the stock market, I can safely predict that it will rise to new heights and sink back to levels unheard of before. It will do so because of a rumor that Christ has returned, or because of irrational exuberance or because Bruce Jenner failed in his efforts.

    I have an IRA with some percentage in the stock market. It keeps my interest in the matter sharp. I took the principal and some additional gains out of the stock market a while ago. I now risk only the stock market gains there. But that still puts beads of sweat on my forehead when the damn thing "crashes to new lows" or gives me the feeling that I play with the big guys, that I have managed to join the ruling class, when it "reaches new heights".

    And while I am here making predications let me predict that if Manny Pacquiao can keep up the pressure on Mayweather or if Mayweather decides to fight rather than dance the Pac Man will win.

    1. Thanks for the comment NM.

      I, myself, think your investment is safe. The market keeps steadily rising even with slow growth. The Fed seems committed to that, continuing to pump money into it with quantitative easing and by keeping interest rates way low, and they just pushed back raising them again (because of the slow growth).

      It's that slow growth that would affect the election, if it becomes negative growth for two or three successive quarters and they start calling it a recession. Just hearing that makes people feel insecure.

      But the Republicans might affect the election, too. Their obstructionism would seem to put them at a disadvantage with the vast middle, but if the economy comes into play that changes peoples' thinking about the parties, I think.

      Your market predictions gave me a chuckle though.

      I really don't follow boxing any more, although I will be watching that fight. The guy who helps me out gets most of the big fights on pay per view. I'll keep your prediction in mind and make an announcement to that effect before the fight begins and see if I can impress anybody else there.

      I see that both fighters have gone the distance in their last few fights, so they should be both in pretty good shape, whatever effect that will have. That's about the only thing I know to look for. I got that from a guy at an Ali-Foreman fight. I used to go see the big fights on closed circuit in South Bend, IN, when Ali, Foreman, Frazier and Norton were all fighting each other. At this Ali Foreman fight, I was sitting next to an old Hispanic guy who knew boxing, and he told me that if the fight went more than a few rounds Ali would probably win, because Foreman had been knocking everyone out in two or three rounds, so wasn't in shape. I believe that was the rope a dope fight, but it did go well beyond two or three rounds and Ali did win. The place exploded.

      Those were great. They were in a small old theater. As soon as the lights went down the place filled up with cigar smoke and there was much leaping to the feet and yelling and such and it felt like you were at the fight, or did to me who has never been to one.